{"id":167,"date":"2019-07-06T05:13:33","date_gmt":"2019-07-06T05:13:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/?p=167"},"modified":"2019-07-06T05:13:33","modified_gmt":"2019-07-06T05:13:33","slug":"yield-curve-inversion-signals-us-recession-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/?p=167","title":{"rendered":"yield curve inversion signals US recession ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The US treasury bond yield curve inverted in March 2019. Based on historical data, we can predict a recession in about a year. See the chart below (from a presentation by Chris Waller at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Yield curve inversions are strong precursors of recessions, but there is a notable lag. The wild card today is the trade war.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/inversion2019.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-164\" src=\"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/inversion2019.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/inversion2019.png 1920w, http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/inversion2019-300x169.png 300w, http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/inversion2019-768x432.png 768w, http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/inversion2019-1024x576.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US treasury bond yield curve inverted in March 2019. Based on historical data, we can predict a recession in about a year. See the chart below (from a presentation by Chris Waller at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Yield curve inversions are strong precursors of recessions, but there is a notable lag. The wild card today is the trade war.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/167"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=167"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/167\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":168,"href":"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/167\/revisions\/168"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.jeffdawson.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}